Saturday, November 12, 2016

Election Observation

I cannot help but consider the possibility of something more than a gross over-estimate of Clinton support occurring here. Consider that the candidate's election was deemed inevitable by virtually every pre-election model, consider that the intranet-election polling by VoteCastr and others all continued to show the candidate leading in many of the battleground states by up to 8 pts (consistent with the pre-election polling and models) and consider that the candidate actually went on to win the popular vote by a considerable number it is rather suspicious that the numbers flipped as they during the last hours of voting in many of these states to give Trump a narrow lead that he then carried to the end. I do not pretend to be in a position to opine how and why these changes occurred but also cannot ignore a pattern that seems so glaring as to suggest something more than a mere coincidence is at play.