Make no mistake about the import of Sunday’s election in
France. It is neither melodramatic nor fear-mongering to say that the stability
of the world as we presently know it may rest on its outcome. There is no doubt
that Russia and, in particular, Vladimir Putin has been seeking to reassert its
global influence and re-position itself as a Soviet-styled superpower. Putin’s
biggest obstacles to reclaiming its past glory and to regain control over the
nations that gained footing in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet
Union are NATO and the European Union. Most of these countries, while
successful in establishing democratic governments, still struggle with
maintaining those governments in the face of pressures that have historic roots
in their connection with and dependence upon a Soviet model that provided
ethnic, economic and military protections. These countries, freed of their
Soviet dependence, nevertheless seek the same type of protection previously provided
by Soviet Russia, turning to the EU and NATO with the expectation of economic and
military protections that will allow those governments to stabilize and
flourish. A successful embrace of the former eastern block by the EU and NATO
is without question not in Putin’s best interests and he has consequently
unleashed a strategy to destabilize Western governments with the expectation
that destabilization will leave the former eastern bloc of nations adrift and
vulnerable to entreaties by Russia to join a “new” form of Soviet-styles
governance.
This coordinated attack has already succeeded on three
fronts: first, an invasion and reacquisition of Crimea and invasion of the
Ukraine, both intended to test NATO’s willingness to defend an Eastern European
member and to show other former eastern bloc countries that NATO should not be
counted on to provide protection given its tepid response to the Russian adventurism
in the Ukraine.
With his eye on the prize…a total collapse of the EU…Russian
intelligence services, at Putin’s behest, first began a coordinated effort to undermine
elections in the U.K. which was facing a referendum on whether to leave the
European Union. The result was Brexit which continues to reverberate throughout
the UK as the process toward a total exit continues. The bigger prize, of
course; was the pending election in the United States which included candidate
Donald Trump who had for quite some time espoused his admiration for Putin and
his disdain for NATO. Successfully swaying the election away from Hillary
Clinton over whom Putin had no control and likely feared because of her
bellicose attitude toward Putin and his intentions and toward Trump would
almost certainly remove a major obstacle…perhaps the biggest obstacle…to his
broader plans for NATO and the EU. Certainly, a Clinton presidency would have
provided the EU with support when it needed it most given the U.K. vote and
would also have strengthened the US commitment to NATO and its members. Trump’s
victory, unquestionably a product of Russian interference, has certainly and
effectively provided Putin with a significant victory and step toward realizing
his goals for despite claims of some commitment to NATO there is no doubt that
the Trump administration will pursue an isolationist policy in the face of any
Russian aggression in the east leaving it to the EU as the last, best hope of
responding to Russia’s provocations.
Which brings us to the election in France. LePen, as with
Trump, has made clear her embrace of all things Putin and willingness to do his
bidding under the same Trump-like refrain making France France again. That
bidding includes quickly pursuing a withdrawal from the EU under the guise (as
with Brexit) of having to close borders which had become too porous in the EU
model. Withdrawal would leave the EU on the precipice of total collapse with
Germany as the last remaining major economic power left to protect the Union of
nations but with Germany also facing its own elections and Putin’s cyber
attacks becoming more refined and effective with each election it seeks to
undermine it is likely Germany, too, will face its own crisis. Regardless, a
French exit from the EU will certainly give many of the former eastern bloc
countries pause and make their populace if not their governments very
vulnerable to the nationalist rhetoric Putin is certain to push in an effort to
undermine those governments and ultimately bring those countries back into the
fold and return Russia to its glory days as a superpower on the same footing as
the United States.
Why does this matter for the United States? As this
destabilization unfolds the U.S. will be left once again to deal with a
re-energized Russia which will seek at every turn to contest any US policy it
deems not in its interests by any means necessary. This tension may not mean
much to a Trump administration which has shown no interest in dealing with the
complexities of a globalist world but at some point that administration will be
replaced. The results of Putin’s aggression and Trump’s isolationism will be
felt for years to come unless Putin and his designs are confronted now. Our
interests are best serve by a stable EU that is allowed to continue the process
of integrating the former eastern bloc countries into its fold.
As I said at the outset, it's not too melodramatic to state
the obvious. These perilous times are becoming more perilous by the day.
