Viva La France?

Make no mistake about the import of Sunday’s election in France. It is neither melodramatic nor fear-mongering to say that the stability of the world as we presently know it may rest on its outcome. There is no doubt that Russia and, in particular, Vladimir Putin has been seeking to reassert its global influence and re-position itself as a Soviet-styled superpower. Putin’s biggest obstacles to reclaiming its past glory and to regain control over the nations that gained footing in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union are NATO and the European Union. Most of these countries, while successful in establishing democratic governments, still struggle with maintaining those governments in the face of pressures that have historic roots in their connection with and dependence upon a Soviet model that provided ethnic, economic and military protections. These countries, freed of their Soviet dependence, nevertheless seek the same type of protection previously provided by Soviet Russia, turning to the EU and NATO with the expectation of economic and military protections that will allow those governments to stabilize and flourish. A successful embrace of the former eastern block by the EU and NATO is without question not in Putin’s best interests and he has consequently unleashed a strategy to destabilize Western governments with the expectation that destabilization will leave the former eastern bloc of nations adrift and vulnerable to entreaties by Russia to join a “new” form of Soviet-styles governance.

This coordinated attack has already succeeded on three fronts: first, an invasion and reacquisition of Crimea and invasion of the Ukraine, both intended to test NATO’s willingness to defend an Eastern European member and to show other former eastern bloc countries that NATO should not be counted on to provide protection given its tepid response to the Russian adventurism in the Ukraine.

With his eye on the prize…a total collapse of the EU…Russian intelligence services, at Putin’s behest, first began a coordinated effort to undermine elections in the U.K. which was facing a referendum on whether to leave the European Union. The result was Brexit which continues to reverberate throughout the UK as the process toward a total exit continues. The bigger prize, of course; was the pending election in the United States which included candidate Donald Trump who had for quite some time espoused his admiration for Putin and his disdain for NATO. Successfully swaying the election away from Hillary Clinton over whom Putin had no control and likely feared because of her bellicose attitude toward Putin and his intentions and toward Trump would almost certainly remove a major obstacle…perhaps the biggest obstacle…to his broader plans for NATO and the EU. Certainly, a Clinton presidency would have provided the EU with support when it needed it most given the U.K. vote and would also have strengthened the US commitment to NATO and its members. Trump’s victory, unquestionably a product of Russian interference, has certainly and effectively provided Putin with a significant victory and step toward realizing his goals for despite claims of some commitment to NATO there is no doubt that the Trump administration will pursue an isolationist policy in the face of any Russian aggression in the east leaving it to the EU as the last, best hope of responding to Russia’s provocations.

Which brings us to the election in France. LePen, as with Trump, has made clear her embrace of all things Putin and willingness to do his bidding under the same Trump-like refrain making France France again. That bidding includes quickly pursuing a withdrawal from the EU under the guise (as with Brexit) of having to close borders which had become too porous in the EU model. Withdrawal would leave the EU on the precipice of total collapse with Germany as the last remaining major economic power left to protect the Union of nations but with Germany also facing its own elections and Putin’s cyber attacks becoming more refined and effective with each election it seeks to undermine it is likely Germany, too, will face its own crisis. Regardless, a French exit from the EU will certainly give many of the former eastern bloc countries pause and make their populace if not their governments very vulnerable to the nationalist rhetoric Putin is certain to push in an effort to undermine those governments and ultimately bring those countries back into the fold and return Russia to its glory days as a superpower on the same footing as the United States.

Why does this matter for the United States? As this destabilization unfolds the U.S. will be left once again to deal with a re-energized Russia which will seek at every turn to contest any US policy it deems not in its interests by any means necessary. This tension may not mean much to a Trump administration which has shown no interest in dealing with the complexities of a globalist world but at some point that administration will be replaced. The results of Putin’s aggression and Trump’s isolationism will be felt for years to come unless Putin and his designs are confronted now. Our interests are best serve by a stable EU that is allowed to continue the process of integrating the former eastern bloc countries into its fold.

As I said at the outset, it's not too melodramatic to state the obvious. These perilous times are becoming more perilous by the day.